Balanced Doesn't Mean Boring: Ontario's Housing Market, September 2026

By Corcoran Horizon Realty

“Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?”

It’s the question our agents hear most this fall, often from people standing in a kitchen they love and wondering if now is the time to move.

The short answer is that most of the markets we serve are balanced. Prices are lower than a year ago, but they held steady from July to August. Fewer people are listing their homes, and that is a big part of the reason.

The details change from city to city and by type of home. Detached homes in Waterloo Region are leaning toward sellers again. Hamilton and Oakville are balanced, and buyers there have more choice. Condos favour buyers in most places. Muskoka’s cottage market follows its own pattern.

Here is the longer answer.

August 2026 at a glance

Average sold price is what homes actually sold for that month, so it moves with the mix of homes that happened to sell. Benchmark price tracks a typical home, so it is steadier month to month. Hamilton is shown as a benchmark for that reason, so read it beside the others with that difference in mind.

Sources: TRREB (GTA), the Oakville-Milton and District Real Estate Board, and the Cornerstone Association of Realtors, August 2026 releases, plus Zolo Muskoka Lakes market data for the past 28 days as of September 15. Muskoka’s figure is based on only 22 sales, so a few waterfront deals can move it a lot.

What does a balanced market mean?

It means neither buyers nor sellers have a clear upper hand, and that’s a good thing.

The easiest way to measure this is months of inventory. That’s how long it would take to sell every home on the market if no new listings came up. Under about three months usually favours sellers. Over about six months usually favours buyers. Anything in between is balanced.

In August, Waterloo Region had 3.4 months of inventory, Hamilton had 4.5 and the Oakville-Milton area had 4.6. Across Canada, CREA reported 4.8 months, unchanged for the fourth month in a row.

Here is how we explain it to clients. In 2021, listing a home felt like Black Friday, with crowds at the door and bidding wars over everything. In 2023, it felt like a quiet weekday at the mall, with the lights on and very few people buying. This September feels more like a regular Saturday. There are real shoppers and they are buying, but nobody is lining up overnight.

That’s what balanced looks like. It’s a steady, normal market, and that makes it a good time to make clear decisions.

Are home prices still falling?

Compared with last year, yes. Compared with July, not really.

The best way to compare prices over time is the benchmark price. It tracks the value of a typical home, so it isn’t thrown off by which homes happened to sell that month. In August, benchmark prices were down about 4 to 6% from a year earlier in each of these markets: 4.5% in the GTA, 6.0% in Kitchener-Waterloo, 4.2% in Cambridge, 5.0% in Hamilton and 5.7% in Oakville-Milton. From July to August, though, those prices barely moved.

Average prices tell a similar story. The GTA averaged $993,410, down 2.7% from last August, and Oakville-Milton averaged $1,152,029, down 4.7%. Waterloo Region’s average was almost unchanged. In Hamilton, detached homes are holding their value better than townhouses and condos.

No one can call the bottom of a market until after it’s passed. What we can say is that prices have stopped sliding from month to month, at least for now.

Why are prices holding steady?

Mostly because fewer people are listing their homes.

In the GTA, 12,075 new listings came on the market in August, down 14.1% from a year earlier, while sales fell only 2.1%. In Waterloo Region, new listings fell 14.9%. Many owners who don’t have to sell are staying put, and with fewer homes for sale, prices have held steady.

We are not seeing broad price growth yet. In a few pockets, like detached homes in Waterloo Region, buyers are already competing again.

Is this a good time to move up to a bigger home?

For many families, yes. When prices dip across the board, the gap between the home you sell and the home you buy usually gets smaller.

Here is a simple example with round numbers. Last summer, you owned a $700,000 townhouse and had your eye on a $1,050,000 detached home. The gap between them was $350,000.

Now say both homes are worth about 5% less. Your townhouse is worth about $665,000, and the detached home is about $997,500. The gap is now $332,500.

You would sell for $35,000 less than last year, but you would buy for $52,500 less. That puts you $17,500 ahead on the move, with a smaller mortgage on your new home. That advantage shrinks if prices start to rise again, so think of it as a window for this fall rather than a permanent one.

Interest rates matter too. The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% on September 2, its seventh hold in a row. Keep in mind that fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market, not the Bank of Canada, and they have been edging up this month. A mortgage professional can tell you what you qualify for today.

Who has the edge right now?

Condos: buyers, in most places. Condos are still the softest part of the market, with more homes for sale and lower prices than last year. In Waterloo Region, townhouses, semi-detached homes and condos together averaged $501,805 in August, down 9.4% from a year earlier. For buyers who plan to stay put for several years, there is more choice and more room to negotiate than we have seen in a while.

Detached homes in Waterloo Region: leaning toward sellers. Detached homes had 2.8 months of inventory in August, and well-priced family homes are drawing multiple offers again.

Hamilton: balanced, with room for buyers. With 4.5 months of inventory, buyers have time and choice. Detached homes are holding their value better than townhouses and condos.

Oakville: balanced. The Oakville-Milton area sat at 4.6 months of inventory in August, and the benchmark price for a single-family home was $1,245,100, down 7.2% from last year. New listings fell 30.2%, which is shrinking supply, but the board described demand as muted. Buyers at the upper end are active, and they are taking their time.

Muskoka: its own market. Muskoka Lakes averaged about $2.73 million over the past 28 days, up 44% from a year ago, but that is based on only 22 sales. With so few sales, a couple of large waterfront deals can move the average a lot. It points to strong demand at the high end, not a 44% jump in every cottage’s value.

What could change the market this fall?

There are three things to watch.

Fall listings. More homes usually come on the market after Labour Day. If that doesn’t happen this year, supply will stay tight and well-priced homes will sell faster.

Interest rates. The Bank of Canada’s next rate decision is October 28. Fixed mortgage rates can also move on their own, even when the Bank holds.

National numbers. CREA’s August report, released September 15, showed sales down slightly from July while new listings rose 3.3%. Nationally, the market is steady rather than tightening, which is why local numbers matter more than the headlines.

What should you do with this information?

If you’re buying: in most of our markets, you can still include conditions in your offer, such as financing, a home inspection or the sale of your current home. Use them, especially for condos and in Hamilton. If you’re shopping for a detached home in Waterloo Region, be ready to move quickly, because you may be up against other buyers.

If you’re selling: price your home for today’s market, not for a neighbour’s sale from 2022. On average, homes in our markets are taking about five to six weeks to sell. A home priced too high tends to sit, and the longer it sits, the more buyers wonder what’s wrong with it.

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