What do September's housing numbers mean for a fall move?

By Cliff Rego  ·  CEO, Founder and Broker Owner

TRREB published its September figures on October 6, and the Bank of Canada meets again on October 28.

Prices are lower than a year ago, and fewer homes are coming to market. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board put its MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark for All TRREB Areas at $917,600 in September 2026. That is down 4.65 per cent from September 2025. A fall move now starts from a lower price and a smaller pool of buyers.

What did the GTA do in September?

The GTA slowed on both sides at once. TRREB reported 5,040 sales across All TRREB Areas in September 2026. That is down 9 per cent from September 2025.

New listings moved further. TRREB counted 16,500 new listings in September 2026, down 14.4 per cent from a year earlier. Active listings at the end of the month stood at 26,131.

Two price measures matter here, and they are different things. The average selling price is what homes actually sold for, so it shifts with the mix of homes that happened to trade. The benchmark price tracks a typical home over time.

The average selling price across All TRREB Areas was $1,006,409 in September 2026, down 5.1 per cent from a year earlier. It sits above the benchmark because of that mix effect.

Here is one illustrative way to read the index. A home that tracked TRREB’s benchmark exactly would be worth roughly $45,000 less this September than it was last September. Those are round numbers for illustration only, and no single home moves exactly with an index.

A note on geography. All TRREB Areas covers the City of Toronto plus the surrounding regions. City of Toronto figures on their own usually read differently, so make sure any number you are quoted names the area it belongs to.

How does Oakville-Milton compare?

Oakville-Milton is softer than the GTA on the benchmark measure. The Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board reported a composite benchmark price of $1,044,000 in August 2026. That is down 5.7 per cent from the same month in 2025.

August is the most recent month with a published benchmark for that board, so the Oakville-Milton picture sits one month behind the GTA one. We mention it because the two sets of figures are often quoted side by side as though they cover the same weeks.

Sales in Oakville-Milton numbered 382 in August 2026, down 9 per cent from a year earlier. The board’s own September release is now out, and it reports average sold prices rather than a benchmark.

Those two measures answer different questions, so we keep them apart. Where a board publishes only an average for a market, we say which measure we are quoting.

Is this a buyer’s market or a seller’s market?

It is balanced, with some room for buyers. TRREB reported 4.6 months of inventory across All TRREB Areas in September 2026.

Months of inventory is how long the current crop of listings would take to sell at today’s pace. The industry rule of thumb treats under about three months of supply as favouring sellers, and over about six months as favouring buyers.

The national picture reads much the same. The Canadian Real Estate Association reported 4.9 months of inventory at the end of September 2026, which it describes as in line with its long-term average.

CREA also reported its national composite benchmark down 3.4 per cent from a year earlier. A national reading can move while a local one holds still, so we quote both and name each one.

Borrowing costs are the other half of this question. The Bank of Canada’s target for the overnight rate has been 2.25 per cent since October 29, 2025. It has held the rate at every announcement since, most recently on September 2, 2026.

The next two scheduled announcements are October 28 and December 9, 2026. The October date comes with the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report, which sets out its own view of where the economy is heading.

The Bank’s rate and your mortgage rate are two different things. TRREB’s September 2026 report listed a posted five year rate of 6.09 per cent, with prime at 4.5 per cent. What you qualify for depends on your lender, your term and your down payment.

What does this mean if you are selling this fall?

It means pricing to the market you are in, rather than to last year’s. TRREB reported an average of 34 days on the current listing in September 2026. Counting earlier listings of the same home, the average was 51 days.

That gap is worth understanding. A home relisted at a new price starts a fresh count. The days shown on a listing can therefore understate how long it has really been for sale. Buyers and their agents can usually see the longer history anyway.

The brighter number for sellers is the flow of new homes onto the market. Fewer came up this September than last September, so a well prepared home meets less competition than the headline price change suggests.

CREA’s chair made the same point in the September release. Garry Bhaura said that for sellers, “a well thought out pricing strategy will become even more important.”

Preparation and a realistic asking price are the parts you control. Neither of them is glamorous work, and both of them show up in the offers you get.

What changes the answer for you?

Three things change it, and we can look at all three together. Your timeline is the first. A soft month matters far less if you plan to hold the home for a decade.

The second is the type of home. Condo apartments across All TRREB Areas averaged $605,257 in September 2026, down 7.7 per cent from last year. That drop is steeper than the market as a whole.

The third is whether you are moving within the same market. If you sell and buy in the GTA this fall, a lower price on your sale usually arrives alongside a lower price on your purchase. The gap between the two is what lands in your budget, and it can be smaller than people expect.

None of this tells you what prices will do next. It tells you what they have done, which is the part you can plan around.

Quick Questions

Are GTA home prices up or down right now? Down from last year. TRREB’s MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark for All TRREB Areas was down 4.65 per cent in September 2026 against September 2025. The average selling price was down 5.1 per cent over the same period.

How long is a home taking to sell in the GTA? TRREB reported an average of 34 days on the current listing in September 2026. Counting earlier listings of the same property, the average was 51 days. A relisted home can have been for sale far longer than its listing suggests.

What is a benchmark price, and how is it different from an average? A benchmark price tracks what a typical home is worth over time, holding its features steady. An average divides total sales value by the number of sales. It moves whenever a lot of expensive or inexpensive homes happen to sell.

When does the Bank of Canada announce its rate next? October 28, 2026, alongside its Monetary Policy Report, and then December 9, 2026. The target for the overnight rate has sat at 2.25 per cent since October 29, 2025. Fixed mortgage rates follow the bond market, so they can move between announcements.

If you want to know where your own home sits against these numbers, we can walk you through them. You can book a free home evaluation with our team or talk to a Corcoran Horizon broker.

Corcoran Horizon Realty

This article is general information, not financial, legal or tax advice. Market figures are from TRREB, the Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board, CREA and the Bank of Canada. They reflect the periods shown and are current as of October 16, 2026. The dollar figure in the index example is illustrative.